2017 is officially in the books. It’s time to take a look and see what the Denver Metro market did last year. The numbers you will see represented below will show sales for the entire year, January 1st through December 31st. So it will take all seasonality out of the mix. So lets see how 2017 compares to previous years.
NOTE: The data below represents the 7 county Denver Metro Statistics (Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, and Jefferson) we track at the South Metro Denver Realtor Association and it represents ALL properties including single family, condo and townhome sales.
Median Sale Price
The median sale price for all of 2017 was $375,000 compared to $347,500 from a year ago. The rate of increase was 7.9% compared to an 11.4% increase from 2015 to 2016. The 7.9% is getting us closer to that healthier 3-5% annual increase. We are definitely in an appreciating market, this shows that we could be moving closer to a balanced market. To really see what is impacting our growth, we need to take a closer look at our supply and demand on the market.
New Listings (Supply)
This is the real story of our market for the last few years. I actually went back a few years to look at how things have changed. Because the year over year numbers are so close to each other and there is very little movement. The new inventory has dropped considerably. The rolling 12 month is just about 60K new listings each year (61,614 for 2017, a very small decrease from 2016). Previously, the peak was close to 100K listings. Now compare this to the Sold Listings below.
Sold Listings (Demand)
As the number of new listings (supply) dropped, the number of sold listings (demand) increased (2017 had 54,554 sold listings, up 1.8% from 2016). While the supply has dropped and stabilized since about 2014 or so, the number of sold listings has increased during this time. We are selling almost as many houses as we are listing. When the market was in a down turn, it was exactly the opposite. 2010 saw a total of 35K sold listings and 95K new listings. That is high supply and low demand, i.e. a buyers market.
Days on Market and Sold vs List Price
Because we have low supply and high demand, the median days on market has dropped to record low levels. Back in 2009-2012 we were seeing 50-60 days on market. In the last couple years it has been below 10 and for the last 3 years it has been 7. Homes selling in about a week!
At the same time, the sold to list price percentage has been at 100% vs the 98%. This means homes are selling at their list price. So right now, low balling an offer is not a good practice if you find a house you really want.
So Now What?!
I was at an Economic Summit at SMDRA a couple days ago. The economists here in Denver do not see anything that indicates the economy or housing market is going to do anything different this year. And I would expect more of the same as last year. Median prices will continue to rise however maybe they won’t rise as fast. New home starts are still behind so there’s doesn’t seem to be a large surge in new inventory. Now if there were to be a significant global or national event (like a 9/11, or the mortgage crisis from a few years ago), that could certainly trigger a significant shift.